Prepare for the Future of Your Facility’s Staffing Needs With Our Review of Projected Physician Shortages by Specialty

As a healthcare facility, patients rely on your services to receive vital treatments. But how can you serve specific patients if you don’t have sufficient specialists?

The healthcare industry has consistently been staggered by physician shortages in specialty and location. The physician shortage may have enough impact to incapacitate major facilities, rendering already underserved communities in dire need of care. 

So, how can facilities employ solutions to overcome staffing hurdles?

In this article, we will review physician shortages by specialty to gain insight into the current shortage trends. 

Table of Contents

• Understanding the National Physician Shortage
• What Medical Specialties Have the Largest Shortage?
• Projected Physician Shortage by Specialty Through 2035
• How Medical Facilities Can Address Specialty Physician Shortages
• Let the Professionals at Trusted Managed Services Help Fill Your Open Specialty Physician Positions

Understanding the National Physician Shortage

It took a national crisis to raise public awareness of a phenomenon experts and officials have been decrying since the early 2000s. 

While the COVID-19 pandemic has glaringly improved public awareness and Congress’ attempts to tackle the issue, the problem still stands: the United States has a significant physician shortage, and it’s only worsening. 

A recent report published by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) estimates that by 2036, the U.S. is expected to face a physician shortage of between 13,500 and 86,000 physicians. This study succeeds a previous conclusion from 2021, in which the AAMC reported a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 individuals within the following two decades.

According to experts, the primary contributions to the physician shortage are:

• Patient demographics: By 2036, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 8%. Additionally, the elderly population is estimated to grow by 34.1%, with an increased population of 54.7% of individuals aged 75 and older. Changes in these demographics necessitate a need for more geriatric physicians, a specialty currently lacking a population. 
• Physician demographics: Currently, physicians aged 65 and older comprise 20% of the workforce, and physicians aged 55 to 64 make up 22%. In the next five years, we can expect to see a significant decrease in supply as more physicians reach retirement age. 
• Disparities in healthcare access for underserved communities: COVID-19 unveiled dire disparities in access to healthcare in rural and minority communities. If these disparities were equalized and access barriers removed, experts suggest the current demand projected for 3036 would increase from 117,000 needed physicians to 202,800, relative to the current supply. 
• Deficiencies in surge capacity and pandemic planning protocols: Similar disparities in care regarding surge capacity and pandemic planning revealed the realities of a physician shortage during mass casualty events, especially in underserved areas. While this may not be a direct factor, it may reinforce the call for more physicians than initially projected in recent findings. 
• Increasing costs of higher education: The crushing cost of student debt inflicted on newly minted physicians often causes them to seek jobs in areas that provide higher salaries. These generally densely populated areas with higher average incomes may generate medical deserts. 

What Medical Specialties Have the Largest Shortage?

Shortages in medical specialties may vary by specialty and state. 

General, specific projections by 2036 include shortages of:

• Between 17,800 and 48,000 primary care physicians 
• Between 21,000 and 77,100 non-primary care physicians

This includes shortages divided by specialty:

• Between 15,800 and 30,200 for surgical specialties
• Between 3,800 and 13,400 for medical specialties
• Between 10,300 and 35,600 for other specialties

When Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) are accounted for, they may be categorized by rural vs. suburban and underserved vs. high access. HPSAs are defined as areas with patient-to-physician ratios of fewer than 3,500:1 and generally occur in rural areas. 

Despite 20% of Americans living in rural areas, the physician population remains at less than 10%. This population incongruity often leads to growing HPSAs. For example, almost 19% of Missourians live in an HPSA compared to 12% nationally. Missouri:

• Is short 363 primary care physicians (seventh most needed specialty in the U.S.) 
• Has over 200 HSPAs within the state 
• Meets only 39% of its needs, ranking it fifty-first in the U.S. for meeting its primary care demands

Trusted Managed Services and Trusted Locum Tenens understand the finite supply of physicians and the difficulty of guaranteeing even distribution. 

Sometimes, your facility may need specialized physicians to perform important services. If your facility has one or two, what will you do if they are temporarily absent?

As a healthcare MSP with connections to an exemplary locum tenens supply, we help facilities access and manage shortage challenges. Our goal is to help bridge the gap between access barriers and the growing demand for physicians so your facility can better serve your area. 

Learn more about us and our partnership with Trusted Locum Tenens today. 

Projected Physician Shortage by Specialty Through 2035

Categorically, physician shortages are ranked by adequacy percentages, which indicate the percentage of demand (supply divided by demand) the projected supply of physicians will meet. 

High adequacy percentages indicate the number of physicians meeting patient demand. Lower percentages indicate a stark shortage in the current supply. 

Let’s examine the adequacy percentages to investigate each physician shortage by specialty, while also exploring the nature of the shortage. 

Thoracic Surgery 

Thoracic surgeons, also known as cardiothoracic physicians, employ their knowledge and skill to perform complex surgeries in the thoracic cavity. 

With an adequacy percentage of 69%, thoracic surgeons lead the pack in the current physician shortage. 

Recent data from the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) reinforces the future impact of the current adequacy percentages for this specialty. With the median age of thoracic physicians being 56 in 2019, the HRSA expects 900 cardiothoracic surgeons to retire in the next decade, while total demand during the same period will increase by 20%.

Trends that may be influencing this shortage include:

• Fewer surgical interns
• More exam failures
• Less American Board of Thoracic Surgery (ABTS) certifications

With the increase of the aging population and the continued rise of cardiothoracic procedures, the projected thoracic surgeon population would need to increase their caseload by 121% to meet demand.

Ophthalmology 

Ophthalmologists specialize in medical and surgical treatments for eye diseases and disorders. 

Despite the growing need for ophthalmologists and the increase in eye disease, the inadequacy percentage for this physician specialty is 30%. To make matters worse, industry experts project a 12% decline in FTE ophthalmologists by 2035, whereas demand is expected to increase by 25%.

If the decline continues, adequacy percentages for rural areas may drop as low as 26% to 29%. 

The factors affecting the trajectory for ophthalmology adequacy percentages may be influenced by:

• Increased eye diseases due to age and external factors
• Many ophthalmologists opting to work part-time 
• Residency programs turning out roughly the same number of graduates as the retiring ophthalmologist population year after year

Plastic Surgery

Currently, there are only 7,728 active American Board of Plastic Surgeons-certified professionals in the U.S. The specialty has a 75% adequacy. 

Most plastic surgery physicians opt to live in densely populated areas, and many leave the general practice to specialize in cosmetic surgery. 

Since 2022, the plastic surgery industry has seen a 19% increase in cosmetic surgeries. This growing demand may continue to lure surgeons away from practices that specialize in reconstructive surgeries, potentially leaving many Americans without care for:

• Tumor removal 
• Hand surgery 
• Breast reconstruction
• Maxillofacial surgery 
• Scar revision

Nephrology

Nephrologists specialize in diagnosing, treating, and managing acute and chronic kidney diseases and disorders. The adequacy percentage for nephrology is 79%. 

Industry leaders cite a lack of interest in the specialty as the reason for the population shortfall. In 2023, only 66% of nephrology fellowship positions were filled, a 10% decrease from 2022. 

The need for more kidney specialists like nephrologists will continue to rise as chronic kidney disease rates (CKD) increase. Approximately 37 million Americans (15% of the adult population) have CKD, but 90% of those affected are unaware they have it. 

In 2024, the population of Americans with CKD greatly exceeded past predictions (36 million cases) for present-day rates by 1 million cases. 

Urology

Urology is a vital physician specialty that provides diagnosis, care, and treatment for the urinary tract and the reproductive system. 

According to a 2023 census performed by the American Urological Association (AUA), there are 14,176 practicing urologists in the United States, a slight increase of 1.4% from 2022. Despite this small population growth, experts estimate the demand for urologists will grow by 45% by 2035. 

A more comprehensive study using growth models to reflect the current 83% adequacy percentage and other projections surmises that if these rates continue without intervention, we may see urologist-to-patient ratios as low as 3.1 to 13.1 urologists for every 100,000 patients by 2060. 

Contributions to the declining urologist population in the United States may include:

• Bottlenecks in training programs
• Substantial workloads leading to retirement and burnout
• Aging workforce
• Increase in genitourinary diseases and disorders

How Medical Facilities Can Address Specialty Physician Shortages

Experts argue that creating incentives is not entirely effective at increasing provider supply across all counties. 

Even when the Health Services and Resources Administration offered financial incentives for physicians to relocate to underserved communities, the adequacy percentages for physicians in specific areas did not significantly increase. 

As healthcare leaders, how do we combat the healthcare staffing shortages and guarantee an adequate distribution of physicians nationwide?

As a healthcare facility, you might not have the time or budget to create complex programs that encourage the growth of your physician population, but you can’t afford to provide certain medical services. 

Locum tenens is an excellent way to even your odds and ensure patient care. Rather than hoping to attract physicians, you can hand-pick talented specialists to fill your staffing needs temporarily and let Trusted Managed Services focus on the rest. 

When you contract our services, we’ll assign you an account manager to oversee your contingent staffing process. Through our comprehensive vendor management system (VMS), you can make payments and access data regarding your contingent staffing budgets for informed decision-making. 

Why burden your administrators with the additional task of managing your locum tenens when you can rely on the trusted professionals at Trusted Management Services? 

Let the Professionals at Trusted Managed Services Help Fill Your Open Specialty Physician Positions

Navigating the complex terrain of the physician shortage can be difficult without a plan. Trusted Managed Services provides healthcare facilities with a comprehensive roadmap to overcoming staffing obstacles. 

With a fleet of over 18 vendors, our solution provides guaranteed access to talent that is sure to:

• Fill staff vacancies as they come up 
• Enhance your facility’s financial performance
• Support your permanent staff for improved patient outcomes and higher retention rates
• Provide an in-depth analysis of budgets and your contingent staffing population 
• And more

Your community is relying on you to provide crucial medical services. 

Improve their trust in your ability to provide exceptional patient care with the help of Trusted Managed Services. Request a demo today.